Winning Horses Blog

The unseasonably wet and cold weather combined to produce heavy ground for the Chester May meeting and after much consideration trainer Andrew Balding reluctantly declared his leading Investec Derby candidate Bonfire a non-runner for the Group 3 Stobart Barristers Dee Stakes on account of the going and will instead look to get a vital outing into his colt in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York on May 17, writes Elliot Slater.

After walking the track on the morning of his intended seasonal reappearance on the Roodeye Balding was forced to withdraw the son of Manduro from the key Derby trial with the going having become chewed up after the first two day’s racing of the fixture and was deemed unsuitable for his charge, even though the Highclere Thoroughbred Racing syndicate’s colt had run well in France on his final outing last term when a fast-finishing third behind French Fifteen in the Group 1 Criterium International.

Balding reasoned that Bonfire’s fine run in France (when most punters on Betfair.com felt he was very unlucky not to have won the contest after being repeatedly hampered and hemmed in on the rail), was a result of him coping with the testing French ground rather than relishing it, and the Kingsclere handler was not prepared to force the impressive Salisbury maiden winner to go through such conditions again.

Bonfire’s switch to the feature York Derby trial has had a significant effect on the betting for the extended mile-and-a-quarter contest with Balding’s big hope expected to go off favourite ahead of Mandaean and Noble Mission, amongst others, while he remains the current ante-post second favourite in the Epsom Derby 2012 Odds , currently a top priced12/1 shot (some go as short as 8’s) behind hotpot Camelot, a clear market choice at 5/4.

John Oxx looks to have a genuine contender for honours in the Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh, later this month, following the smooth victory of his Takar at the home of Irish racing, on Sunday, in the listed Dylan Thomas European Breeders Fund Tetrarch Stakes, writes Elliot Slater.

Less than 24 hours after the yard’s Born To Sea had failed to shine at Newmarket in the Qipco 2000 Guineas, when well-fancied in many quarters, Takar restored confidence amongst the Oxx team by putting up a professional display in the seven-furlong contest.

The win helped justify 5/4 favouritism, in beating Coolnagree by a length-and-a-quarter, with Ballydoyle’s Triumphant a neck back in third. Get great odds on horse racing on Bet Victor.

The winning margin does not do justice to the measure of superiority the Aga Khan’s colt held over his rivals, having quickened from off the pace to surge into the lead under Johnny Murtagh, before being nudged out to easily maintain his advantage.

The son of Oratorio was setting foot on a racecourse for just his third career outing, and his first of the 2012 campaign, having run with plenty of promise, when fourth to Call to Battle in a Curragh maiden, last October.

He got off the mark at only the second time of asking, when slamming Place Vendome by an impressive eight-lengths at Leopardstown, a month later, right at the end of the Irish turf season.

Oxx expressed himself very pleased with the way his three-year-old went about his business, on Sunday, and had little hesitation in nominating a crack at the Irish 2000 Guineas, on May 26, as the next target for Takar, who comes from a long established bloodline, supported by the Aga Khan, over many decades.

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Even the best of jockeys sometimes get it wrong and that was clearly the case in Joseph O’Brien’s riding of his father Aidan’s high-class St Nicholas Abbey who was given far too much to do when going down to a length defeat to rank outsider and stable companion Windsor Palace in the Group 3 High Chaparral European Breeders Fund Mooresbridge Stakes at the Curragh on Bank Holiday Monday, writes Elliot Slater.

Only 48 hours after he had given Camelot a great ride to win the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, and just 24 hours after the yards’ Homecoming Queen had run her rivals ragged (including O’Brien’s mount and hot favourite Maybe), in the Qipco 1000 Guineas, the teenager was expected, among horse racing betting tips at least, to have a simple task in guiding St Nicholas Abbey to a long odds-on win in the 10-furlong contest having already shown fine form this term when running the superb Cirrus Des Aigles to just a neck in the £2,000,000 Dubai Sheema Clasic at Meydan five weeks earlier.

With Windsor Castle setting the pace under Colm O’Donoghue for his illustrious stable companion, O’Brien settled well down the field in the soft ground and still had 10-lengths to find on the 66/1 shot going down to the final quarter mile. Although he ran on well it soon became clear that O’Brien junior had overdone the waiting tactics and in the end the post came too soon for last season’s Breeders’ Cup Turf and Coronation Cup winner as he failed by a length to peg back his unconsidered stablemate.

Certainly there were plenty of punters who bet on racing more than a little miffed at the result, but it seemed a genuine case of simple jockey error. Aidan O’Brien, defending the ride of his son, explained to the stewards that St Nicholas Abbey had been beaten on similar ground last term before going on the win at the highest level and he felt the horse may be better for the outing. A repeat bid for the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom in early June has been mooted as the next outing for the son of super-sire Montjeu.

Following his impressive seasonal return in maiden company at Newbury’s Greenham meeting, the Sir Henry Cecil-trained, Noble Mission, could be asked to tackle one of the most significant Derby trails of them all, the Group 2 Betfred Dante Stakes at York, on May 17, writes Elliot Slater.

There had been huge interest in Noble Mission from well before his racecourse debut at Yarmouth, last October, where he shaped with definite promise in finishing a five-length second of the 15-runner field behind Godolphin’s exciting potential Derby colt Swedish Sailor.

The important fact is: Noble Mission, the Prince Khaled Abdullah-owned horse, is a full-brother to the mighty Frankel, the unbeaten multiple Group 1 winner, who is currently rated the best horse in the world by some margin. Frankel has been a staple of the horse racing betting news, in recent weeks.

With so much to live up to, Noble Mission was always going to be fighting something of a losing battle, but, despite being fitted with a hood for his three-year-old bow, the son of Galileo travelled like a potentially useful performer in a competitive mile maiden, which he eventually won by nearly four-lengths from the promising, Dream Tune.

Cecil was keen not to get too carried away with the performance, but all concerned with the winner suggested that one of the major Derby trials would be next on the agenda, for a horse who seems to be developing nicely, and could yet go some way towards adding to the family trophy cabinet.

The Dante Stakes has always been one of the most revealing of the big Derby trials, and Cecil could well send Noble Mission for the race, although Abdullah has a number of other potential runners in the contest. Newmarket winner, Model Pupil, Stipulate, Starboard, and Wrotham Heath could compete, amongst the many horses currently entered for the extended 10-furlong contest.

Noble Mission is currently the fifth-favourite for the win at the Dante Stakes, at 49/10 in the horse racing betting.